Franz Niederholzer, UCCE Orchards Advisor Colusa and Sutter-Yuba Counties

When planning orchard operations for this fall and winter, consider including options for a warm fall and/or a very wet winter.

On June 11, 2026, the National Weather Service issued an El Niño Advisory, warning there is currently a “63% chance of a very strong El Niño from November to January”. What could this mean for the Sacramento Valley? Considering past El Niño events, weather in the rest of 2026 and into 2027 could include above-average temperatures extending into the fall, and a significant increase in winter rains. In the winters of 1982-83 and 1997-98, strong El Niño weather events contributed to record annual rainfall totals (for example, 35-40” in Colusa County), producing significantly higher river levels, and flooding in the Sacramento Valley.

What is the short-term forecast? As of June 18, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting “likely above normal” temperatures and equal chances of normal precipitation for August through September. Fall forecasts will be released later this summer.

For more information on the current El Niño forecast, check out Dr. Daniel Swain’s Weather West blog. Dr. Swain is a climate scientist with UC ANR and the National Science Foundation’s National Center for Atmospheric Research.